Climate change, Vulnerability, Limits of Resilience, Political and Security Risks: The case of Mozimasa

Orientação: José Manuel Mendes e Mo Hamza

Programa de Doutoramento: Território, Risco e Políticas Públicas

Africa is the poorest continent in the world. In the sub-Saharan region, almost half of the population lives with not more than $ 1.90 a day and over the last 50 years, growth rates have remained sporadic. At the source, a calamitous governance, an abysmal and paralyzing debt, limited and inadequate infrastructures, a terrible medical care, an essentially rain-fed and subsistence agriculture, the dependence on the resources of the subsoil and the permanent cycles of conflict that are multipliers of risks that block the capacity of these countries and communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change even in their modest early manifestations. It is in these conditions that hurricanes Idai and Kenneth tragically exposed the appalling social and economic pangs affecting thousands of peasant and idle workers in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi. Leaving in its wake a humanitarian crisis of which Mozambique to name only it, which was reached twelve times in just twenty years, pays a heavy price in South-East Africa, considered as one of the most vulnerable

zones of the world and characterized by infinity of evils of which the last cyclones are only excrescences.

This work aims at analysing the indices of vulnerabilities and establishing the link or the correlation between them and the political and security risks. It also intends to explore the concept limit of resilience to determine the lines of tension beyond which the avoidance of the security risk becomes impossible.

Keys words: Climate change, conflict, Fragile States, extreme weather events,resilience, vulnerability, political and security risks