We still don't know the magnitude of the economic crisis that lies ahead. But it will be great. The European Commission forecasts a 7.7% contraction of the Eurozone by 2020. The pandemic is considered a symmetric shock, as economists call it, since all countries and regions will be affected. However, the ability to respond to the shock is differentiated, which will cause distinct impacts across Europe and the world.

Economic research on this ability to respond to shocks - which we can call resilience - shows that this feature has four formats: (i) resistance, which refers to withstanding the shock; (ii) recovery, suffering the shock, but recovering quickly; (iii) reorientation, changing tactics according to available resources; and (iv) renewal, a more profound change, involving the strategy and changing available resources and capabilities.

This clarification is relevant because the crisis is taking advantage of the weaknesses of economic systems. Just as the new coronavirus attacks those who have weaknesses harder, so does the economic crisis. To return to "normality", a return to the "past" may not be the best, when "normal" was part of the problem. This is why change is necessary.
Contemporary capitalism should change because its financialised and disconnected character from the real economy has become clear with the pandemic. But Portuguese economy must also change, in the sense of technological intensification, recovery of productive capacity, structural change, diversification. It must focus on a sustainable transition, based on sustainable consumption. Who knows whether the Green New Deal, recently announced by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, might give a crucial boost to this issue. The State will undoubtedly play a key role in solving societal problems. Obsession with economic growth will have to be reduced. It is quite likely that the idea of "degrowth" will gradually enter the lexicon of economists, governments and people in general.

Finally, I want to conclude with the idea of the crucial importance of university. Recent decades have shown that information and knowledge are not enough for society to move in a desirable direction. There has never been more access to information than today. But without the right ethical and moral values, the knowledge society will never be a society of wisdom. And we really need wisdom. To overcome the pandemic, the economic crisis, the climate emergency that has not gone away. The university is the place to create not only new knowledge, experts, but citizens with values.

This text was shown in the section “Conversas com a Ordem”, on 12/05/2020, under the protocol of Radio Solar FM (94.0) with the Order of Economists - Algarve Regional Delegation.