Overview

In this article Steffen Roth, Lars Clausen and Sören Möller warn of the importance of definitions in the statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is especially true in the case of extreme measures with significant social and economic impacts and in a context of hegemony of the epidemiological and health discourse in the definition of public policies. Roth and colleagues argue, somewhat countercurrently, but reasonably, about the central importance of case fatality rates in the application of draconian measures of confinement, physical distance and quarantine or in the establishment of sanitary cords.

However, the comparison of the COVID-19 lethality rate with minimum and maximum limits of the lethality rate for seasonal influenza, calculated in previous studies, does not show major differences between the two rates. Given the unpredictability, uncertainty, risk and lack of adequate statistical information regarding the current situation, the authors conclude that there is a possibility of sample biases in determining the COVID-19 lethality rate, and that only with reliable data, based on the mortality rate (infected fatality rates), calculated based on all estimated cases of infection, by countries and regions, will it be possible to assess the true risk of COVID-19.